Global pork exports increased by approximately 4 percent during the first half of 2007 compared to the same period last year. The largest export growth in 2007 occurred in Brazil and Chile, with their respective exports increasing by about 30 percent during the period of January through July 2007. Brazil exported an additional 72,000 metric tons, with Russia as the largest market followed by Hong Kong and the Ukraine. Chile’s exports increased by 18,500 metric tons during the first seven months, and Japan and South Korea were the top two destinations for Chilean pork exports. If the U.S.-Korea FTA passes,U.S. pork will be on the same duty reduction schedule as Chilean pork. Countries with lower year-to-date exports are the U.S., Canada, Denmark, China and Australia.
Pork Production Increasing
Global pork production was projected to increase 3 percent over 2006, to 101.8 million metric tons. However, an estimated 10 percent decrease in Chinese pork production due to disease issues will result in a 4.5 percent reduction in global pork production. China dominates global pork production and consumption with over 50 percent of each, while U.S. pork production accounts for about 10 percent of global pork production. Although U.S. pork exports to China increased by 58 percent through August 2007, residue issues will limit the United States’ ability to fill China’s pork shortage.
Through September 2007, U.S. pork production grew by nearly 3 percent, while Canadian pork production declined by 3 percent. U.S. imports of Canadian feeder pigs increased by 8 percent while slaughter hog imports increased by 20 percent compared to January through September 2006. During thefirst two weeks of October, U.S. weekly hog slaughter set new records, with 2.348 million head slaughtered during the week ending October 13. Pork production has been increasing largely due to positive performance results associated with the increased availability of circovirus vaccine earlier in the year. Production is expected to continue at this higher rate into next year. In response to higher production, the pork cutout is nearly 13 percent below October of 2006. The increase in production makes it difficult to pass on higher costs of production to consumers, but most pork producers are expected to finish the year in the black.
Over the last 10 years, the United States has moved from a net pork importer to the largest pork exporter in the world, with over 26 percent market share of global pork exports. Pork plus pork variety meat exports were 3 percent lower in volume but increased 6 percent in value compared to January-August 2006. The decrease in volume comes from slower exports to Mexico, Korea, Russia and Taiwan. The primary volume growth markets were Japan (up 8%), Hong Kong/China (up 61%), Australia (up 40%), Central/South America (up 22%) and the European Union (up 70 %). Japan continues to be the number one value market and is now the number one volume market with exports totaling 238,803 mt, valued at $766 million, through August 2007.
